Most numerical
systems are based on probability, or should I say, a misunderstanding of
probability.
The house is
bank-rolled by reliance upon their statistical advantage. If they got their
sums wrong, they'd go broke - fast. Absolutely, surely, without fail! Take a
look around, are they going broke?
On the other hand,
if they made it too hard to win, the punters would go elsewhere, so they make
sure they aren't too greedy, but will always have the advantage. For a single
zero wheel the player advantage (note that it is negative!) is [35/1 -
36/1] x 1/37 x 100 = -2.703%. For a double zero wheel, their advantage
is [35/1 - 37/1] x 1/38 x 100 = -5.263%. This means that the
longer you play, the more likely you will lose (by about 3 cents in the dollar
on a single zero wheel).
Lets look at how
probability works to clear up any misconceptions so we can evaluate its
usefulness.
On the first spin
of a single zero wheel, you have 1 chance in 37 of a win. On the next spin,
you still have 1 chance in 37! This is where most probability based systems
fail. They make the assumption that a previous action changes the likelihood
of a second action in some way.
If you think about
it, the outcome was pre-determined by the physics of motion & mass. If you
could know accurately all the relevant details involved, you could calculate
the outcome. The question you should ask yourself is what physical force would
come from the first spin & influence the movement on the second spin? None
of course. (I know that in Roulette the wheel is constantly 'spun up' and this
does have an effect, I'm just making a mathematical point, so just ignore this
for the moment, but remember, it really is important and we'll deal with it
later). So the probability remains unchanged.
Does this mean
that probability based systems are useless? Not exactly.
You could use
probability as a tool to identify that there is some other factor influencing
the outcome, an exploit to be milked. That would be useful and you'd never
really know it in time without the maths.
A probability
based system also allows you to "keep a check on reality" because it
forces you to be analytical about your play, keeping you from being sucked
into the mad adrenalin rush or desperate mental states that can so easily
cloud your judgment.
